US crude oil futures are poised to move higher this week to further Friday’s strong gains. A steady sideways trend holding the $105 per barrel level established near term support and formed a “flag” chart pattern in the process. Friday’s surge pushed through resistance, triggering a buy signal on the Autochartist 240-minute chart.

The breakout from the flag appears to confirm that this will be a continuation pattern, meaning the initial trend higher which carried the market above $105 prior to the consolidation will continue. The pattern proved very consistent over the 21 candles completed during its formation, and scores high across the board with an overall quality ranking of 9 bars. The 10-bar initial trend reading was a strong indication that the breakout would occur to the upside and this was confirmed by the rally above the $107 resistance level.

The projected price target calls for a minimum move to $108.42 per barrel to complete the move. The minor setback going into Fridays close appears to be a classic retest of the top of the flag, which allows traders to enter on Monday at or near the level of the initial breakout.

US crude oil continues to severely lag the Brent crude oil futures, which are the predominant contract for the European oil market. With a nearly $20 per barrel discount to Brent, the WTI futures are well positioned to rally. Even a steady price in the Brent contract is liable to encourage speculative buying in the US market, as it is perceived to be underpriced relative to the rest of the global oil market.

In the event  that US crude cannot sustain the rally from the current level, major technical support remains at the bottom of the flag chart pattern near the $103 per barrel level.

For further information on this and other Autochartist products, visit our website at www.autochartist.com

DISCLAIMER: The Autochartist service includes chart pattern identification in respect of foreign currencies, commodities, equities and stocks. There are potential risks relating to investing and trading. You must be aware of such risks and familiarize yourself in regard to such risks and to seek independent advice relating thereto. You should not trade with money that you cannot afford to lose .The Autochartist service and its content should not be construed as a solicitation to invest and/or trade. You should seek independent advice in this regard. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. No representation is being made that any results discussed within the service and its related media content will be achieved. All opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information is provided as general market commentary and not as investment advice. Autochartist, MDIO Software, their members, shareholders, employees, agents, representatives and resellers do not warrant the completeness, accuracy or timeliness of the information supplied, and they shall not be liable for any loss or damages, consequential or otherwise, which may arise from the use or reliance of the Autochartist service and its content. This e-mail may contain information that is confidential. If you are not the intended recipient, you must not distribute, copy, circulate or in any other way use or rely on the information contained within the entirety of this email. Please delete the e-mail and any attachments and notify us immediately.

Gold continued its downward slide to complete the breakout pattern identified in last week’s update, touching of the $1,636 support level and then bouncing higher. The price action of the sell-off from $1,800 per ounce largely fell into another pattern which may be nearing completion as well. This more recent formation to watch is the “falling wedge” chart pattern identified by Autochartist on the 240-minute time interval and illustrated here.

Gold traders have become increasingly reliant on chart analysis and technical indicators to determine the near term direction, as the market is now inside of a very broad trading range between $1,550 and the 2011 highs near $1,900 per ounce. As the market seeks out its overall long term direction, it is likely to continue forming shorter term patterns which can be traded accordingly.

The current falling wedge is a solid example of these shorter term patterns within long term ranges. It measures 9 bars in the initial trend category, and currently shows 6 bars in overall quality. Though significant downside potential remains as the angle of the falling wedge declines, there also a propensity for upside breakouts to occur long before the price reaches the apex, Autochartist will continue to update this pattern for potential direction shift now that the downside target has been reached.

Resumed selling in the week ahead may extend the slide towards the trend line support drawn at $1,620 per ounce. A breach of this support would be exceedingly bearish, suggesting another leg down may be in the works. It appears more likely a retest of the resistance trend line near $1,670 per ounce as the bounce continues is more likely. However, buying strength above that level will be needed to complete this pattern and generate a higher projected price target. Such a move would set gold up for a retest of $1,800 and confirm the $1,636 low as a key support level.

For further information on this and other Autochartist products, visit our website at www.autochartist.com

—-

DISCLAIMER: The Autochartist service includes chart pattern identification in respect of foreign currencies, commodities, equities and stocks. There are potential risks relating to investing and trading. You must be aware of such risks and familiarize yourself in regard to such risks and to seek independent advice relating thereto. You should not trade with money that you cannot afford to lose .The Autochartist service and its content should not be construed as a solicitation to invest and/or trade. You should seek independent advice in this regard. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. No representation is being made that any results discussed within the service and its related media content will be achieved. All opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information is provided as general market commentary and not as investment advice. Autochartist, MDIO Software, their members, shareholders, employees, agents, representatives and resellers do not warrant the completeness, accuracy or timeliness of the information supplied, and they shall not be liable for any loss or damages, consequential or otherwise, which may arise from the use or reliance of the Autochartist service and its content. This e-mail may contain information that is confidential. If you are not the intended recipient, you must not distribute, copy, circulate or in any other way use or rely on the information contained within the entirety of this email. Please delete the e-mail and any attachments and notify us immediately.

The swing low established at $1,663 was close to completing the breakout highlighted in last week’s Autochartist commodities update, available for review on the website. The projected forecast from that move suggested the decline could likely reach $1,636 per ounce if the momentum remained strong. The market slid over $100 per ounce from the initial sell signal generated by that breakout, with the bounce coming a bit early at about $25 above the ideal target.

With the recovery carrying just below the key level resistance, the potential remains high for the price of gold to roll over from here and continue its decline to reach the target level. This would imply one more swing low to complete the longer term pattern, leaving the $1,717 per ounce resistance level intact for now. Such a move may invite a buying opportunity at the lower level once a meaningful base is established.

Alternatively, renewed buying interest may negate the bearish outlook by a successful arlly above the key level resistance. If this occurs early on in the week ahead, it may signal the end of the retracement and set traders’ sights on retesting the last high near the $1,800 level.

For further information on this and other Autochartist products, visit our website at www.autochartist.com

DISCLAIMER: The Autochartist service includes chart pattern identification in respect of foreign currencies, commodities, equities and stocks. There are potential risks relating to investing and trading. You must be aware of such risks and familiarize yourself in regard to such risks and to seek independent advice relating thereto. You should not trade with money that you cannot afford to lose .The Autochartist service and its content should not be construed as a solicitation to invest and/or trade. You should seek independent advice in this regard. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. No representation is being made that any results discussed within the service and its related media content will be achieved. All opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information is provided as general market commentary and not as investment advice. Autochartist, MDIO Software, their members, shareholders, employees, agents, representatives and resellers do not warrant the completeness, accuracy or timeliness of the information supplied, and they shall not be liable for any loss or damages, consequential or otherwise, which may arise from the use or reliance of the Autochartist service and its content. This e-mail may contain information that is confidential. If you are not the intended recipient, you must not distribute, copy, circulate or in any other way use or rely on the information contained within the entirety of this email. Please delete the e-mail and any attachments and notify us immediately.

Brent Crude Oil futures remain range-bound near multi-year highs as traders keep the bid firm against a backdrop of possible conflict in the Persian Gulf. The rhetoric coming from Iran and troop movements by Western Powers continue to feed into the bullish technical outlook, with the chart analysis revealing a strong uptrend in this market. Autochartist is tracking price developments on multiple time frames, with the 240-minute interval capturing the major trend in the form of a Rising Channel chart pattern.

Brent Crude Oil has held a substantial premium over the United States WTI (West Texas Intermediate) Crude Oil futures contract in recent months, as the former seems to have become much more vulnerable to geopolitical tensions and also more susceptible to supply and demand fluctuations on the global oil market. As both contracts trend higher, Brent is far ahead in price terms and now rests comfortably above $120 per barrel. The swing high of the last move actually tested the $130 level before a modest pullback.

Despite the day-to-day volatility, the range for Brent is well contained by the support and resistance lines that for the Rising Channel chart pattern. The erratic spikes have diminished the internal readings of the pattern to a degree, but the Clarity ranking of 10 bars reflects the consistency with which the market has held this trend. It may continue to do so as fear premium builds to gradually drive the price upwards and further develop the channel.

The first sign of weakness- for potential short selling or establishing stop-loss areas on long positions- remains beneath the support provided by this Rising Channel. Currently that would mean a price decline to below the $120 per barrel level for the execution of a technical breakout to the downside. This would be a long term signal in the broader view of the uptrend, and call into question whether a top has been achieved.

Barring such a downside breakout, the likely path of least resistance will find buying interest at the bottom of the channel, with an eventual push to even higher highs to the rising resistance level. Autochartist will identify shorter term timeframes to trade moves within this relatively large trading range. A breakout above the top of the channel would be a strongly bullish development and put the market on track for a retest of the all-time highs set in 2008.

.
For further information on this and other Autochartist products, visit our website at www.autochartist.com

DISCLAIMER: The Autochartist service includes chart pattern identification in respect of foreign currencies, commodities, equities and stocks. There are potential risks relating to investing and trading. You must be aware of such risks and familiarize yourself in regard to such risks and to seek independent advice relating thereto. You should not trade with money that you cannot afford to lose .The Autochartist service and its content should not be construed as a solicitation to invest and/or trade. You should seek independent advice in this regard. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. No representation is being made that any results discussed within the service and its related media content will be achieved. All opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information is provided as general market commentary and not as investment advice. Autochartist, MDIO Software, their members, shareholders, employees, agents, representatives and resellers do not warrant the completeness, accuracy or timeliness of the information supplied, and they shall not be liable for any loss or damages, consequential or otherwise, which may arise from the use or reliance of the Autochartist service and its content. This e-mail may contain information that is confidential. If you are not the intended recipient, you must not distribute, copy, circulate or in any other way use or rely on the information contained within the entirety of this email. Please delete the e-mail and any attachments and notify us immediately.

Gold futures continued to catch a tailwind last week as the fundamental backdrop for the market feeds into a bullish technical chart analysis. The sustained uptrend for the market has found strength from both the geopolitical tensions in the Persian Gulf as well as the European Central Bank’s handling of the Greek debt crisis. The risk averse and speculators have joined the ranks of the buy side, and Autochartist has identified the relevant support and resistance zones which may provide direction as the trend accelerates.

The modest retracement seen towards the end of the week falls in line with the advancement of a Channel Up chart pattern seen on the hourly time frame. After successfully pushing to the top of the channel above $1,780 per ounce to set a new multi-month high, lateral drift carried the price across the channel to the key support provided near Friday’s closing price near $1,772 per ounce.

This becomes an important level to watch going forward, as gold is now trading well over $200 per ounce over the recent lows. A substantial gain in a short time frame leaves the market susceptible to pullbacks even as the long term rally remains intact. A sell-off from the current level would trigger a downside breakout and project a retracement in the week ahead. This support level has held the price so far however, making it a potential long entry point with a close stop-loss order placed just below the channel support.

A turn higher from the $1,770-$1,775 per ounce range would set the stage for a continuation of the Channel Up chart pattern and an eventual move to another swing high. Such a move would encounter initial resistance at the top of the channel near $1,810 per ounce, with a breakout above the trend line viewed as a strongly bullish outcome. Such a move would invite an impulsive rally to the previous all-time highs above $1,900 per ounce and confirm the gold bull market is alive and well.

For further information on this and other Autochartist products, visit our website at www.autochartist.com

DISCLAIMER: The Autochartist service includes chart pattern identification in respect of foreign currencies, commodities, equities and stocks. There are potential risks relating to investing and trading. You must be aware of such risks and familiarize yourself in regard to such risks and to seek independent advice relating thereto. You should not trade with money that you cannot afford to lose .The Autochartist service and its content should not be construed as a solicitation to invest and/or trade. You should seek independent advice in this regard. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. No representation is being made that any results discussed within the service and its related media content will be achieved. All opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information is provided as general market commentary and not as investment advice. Autochartist, MDIO Software, their members, shareholders, employees, agents, representatives and resellers do not warrant the completeness, accuracy or timeliness of the information supplied, and they shall not be liable for any loss or damages, consequential or otherwise, which may arise from the use or reliance of the Autochartist service and its content.

The week ahead may prove to be an important one for developments in the gold market, as key technical levels come into play on the longer term charts. Last week’s test of major trend line support showed up on the Autochartist hourly time frame as a confirmation of an Ascending Triangle chat pattern. This established a positive bias going forward, but the bounce has so far been muted and the bottom of this pattern will need to hold to maintain the bullish outlook.

With the sell-off from resistance at the $1,735 per ounce level, the market confirmed the upper trend line of the pattern and encouraged range-bound trading for the time being. Support at $1,720 found buying interest in line with the rally from the major bottom near set nearly two months ago. As this move higher is now near the mid-range between the all-time highs above $1,900 per ounce and the correction to below $1,550 per ounce, the Ascending Triangle becomes particularly significant in identifying the strength of the bull market.

Expectations are for a continuation of the bounce to a retest of the $1,735 level, as identified here by Autochartist. This would fill in more of the pattern and confirm the current trading range by leaving the trend line support intact. A move above the resistance is needed to trigger an upside breakout, which would set the price on target for an eventual retest of the al-time highs.

Failure for this leg higher to materialize early on would put pressure on the uptrend, with only minor weakness needed to send the price under last week’s swing low and break the triangle on the downside. Thus, the overall range between support and resistance of about $15 per ounce may yield a long term direction once the breakout occurs to one side or the other. Positioning with an upside bias and maintaining a tight stop-loss may allow for a low-risk entry ahead  at the current price.

For further information on this and other Autochartist products, visit our website at www.autochartist.com

DISCLAIMER: The Autochartist service includes chart pattern identification in respect of foreign currencies, commodities, equities and stocks. There are potential risks relating to investing and trading. You must be aware of such risks and familiarize yourself in regard to such risks and to seek independent advice relating thereto. You should not trade with money that you cannot afford to lose .The Autochartist service and its content should not be construed as a solicitation to invest and/or trade. You should seek independent advice in this regard. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. No representation is being made that any results discussed within the service and its related media content will be achieved. All opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information is provided as general market commentary and not as investment advice. Autochartist, MDIO Software, their members, shareholders, employees, agents, representatives and resellers do not warrant the completeness, accuracy or timeliness of the information supplied, and they shall not be liable for any loss or damages, consequential or otherwise, which may arise from the use or reliance of the Autochartist service and its content.

From the steady march from the last swing low near the $109.00 per barrel level, Brent made a short term top at the Channel Up resistance shown near $118.50 to form the upper boundary of the pattern. Mild weakness since this top was put in place encourages the possibility of a near term pullback to the rising support trend line near $112.00 per barrel. This would be a small retracement of about $4 from Friday’s closing price. If tested with strength entering the market, this would present a potential buying opportunity ahead of the next leg up inside of the channel.

An alternative development would be for a resurgence in the price, with the current shallow retracement giving way to a rally above the Channel Up chart pattern and a trade above the $119 per barrel level. This would be an exceedingly bullish development as the price exits the pattern on an upside breakout. From there, Autochartist will generate a forecast that may reach easily into the mid-120 range.

Overall the trend for higher prices in the market appears to be formidable. To entertain thoughts of long term weakness, the price would have to slip through the trend line support at the $112.00 level and generate a sell signal on the confirmed failure of the Channel Up pattern. Without such bearish action developing, even broadly sideways action from here will hold the uptrend intact and set the stage for another new high inside the channel.

For further information on this and other Autochartist products, visit our website at www.autochartist.com

DISCLAIMER: The Autochartist service includes chart pattern identification in respect of foreign currencies, commodities, equities and stocks. There are potential risks relating to investing and trading. You must be aware of such risks and familiarize yourself in regard to such risks and to seek independent advice relating thereto. You should not trade with money that you cannot afford to lose .The Autochartist service and its content should not be construed as a solicitation to invest and/or trade. You should seek independent advice in this regard. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. No representation is being made that any results discussed within the service and its related media content will be achieved. All opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information is provided as general market commentary and not as investment advice. Autochartist, MDIO Software, their members, shareholders, employees, agents, representatives and resellers do not warrant the completeness, accuracy or timeliness of the information supplied, and they shall not be liable for any loss or damages, consequential or otherwise, which may arise from the use or reliance of the Autochartist service and its content. This e-mail may contain information that is confidential. If you are not the intended recipient, you must not distribute, copy, circulate or in any other way use or rely on the information contained within the entirety of this email. Please delete the e-mail and any attachments and notify us immediately.

Grain markets have long been susceptible to a seasonal decline commonly referred to as the “February Break”, where prices are seen weakening from the end of January through the beginning of March. This tendency is a result of farmers selling off old crop to raise capital for the spring planting season. Some years carry a more pronounced effect than others, and it is best to keep an eye on the longer term chart analysis to determine where the markets might be in the price cycle. Autochartist has been tracking the fluctuations of Wheat futures as a potential breaking pattern forms on the 240-minute time frame, which may be forecasting the weakness ahead.

After a sustained rally from the major low at $5.65 per bushel set in December, nearby wheat futures stalled and sold off for much of January. The subsequent low found buying interest well above the December lows, however, setting a higher support zone in place to create the lower trend line of a large Channel Up chart pattern. A healthy recovery then pushed the market to a new high near $6.80 per bushel to confirm the overhead resistance and strengthen the pattern, Now measuring 213 4-hour candles across, this will likely prove to be the dominant trading range as we enter the “February Break” period.

If the technical indicators maintain their current progression, wheat is likely to slide back towards the key support provided near $6.10 per bushel to form the next leg of the Channel Up chart pattern. This allows for a potential short entry at the current level with a stop-loss order placed above the channel resistance around $6.90 per bushel.

There is always the potential for a counter-seasonal move to develop during this time frame as well. Because the channel is now very well-defined, renewed buying to push above the top of the channel would negate the sell signal and set up a breakout towards higher prices. The close proximity of the current price to the top of the channel suggests this move would likely occur during next week’s trading. Autochartist will continue tracking this pattern and will generate a buy signal if such a breakout does occur.

For further information on this and other Autochartist products, visit our website at www.autochartist.com

DISCLAIMER: The Autochartist service includes chart pattern identification in respect of foreign currencies, commodities, equities and stocks. There are potential risks relating to investing and trading. You must be aware of such risks and familiarize yourself in regard to such risks and to seek independent advice relating thereto. You should not trade with money that you cannot afford to lose .The Autochartist service and its content should not be construed as a solicitation to invest and/or trade. You should seek independent advice in this regard. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. No representation is being made that any results discussed within the service and its related media content will be achieved. All opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information is provided as general market commentary and not as investment advice. Autochartist, MDIO Software, their members, shareholders, employees, agents, representatives and resellers do not warrant the completeness, accuracy or timeliness of the information supplied, and they shall not be liable for any loss or damages, consequential or otherwise, which may arise from the use or reliance of the Autochartist service and its content.

After marching steadily higher in the uptrend phase of a Channel Up chart pattern, gold pulled back softly to set up a pivot point within the formation. The $30 per ounce span between the support and resistance trend lines that form the Channel Up creates a large potential trading range, while the lack of retracements so far suggest the pattern may still be in a fairly early stage of development. This is partially reflected in the average internal rankings for Quality, Uniformity, and Clarity. A continuation of range-bound trade within the channel will likely improve the rankings and become the dominant pattern for traders to position against.

Alternatively, follow-through momentum may enter next week’s trading to puch the price above $1,740 per ounce and above the channel’s trend line resistance. This would signal a premature breakout from the emerging pattern and signal a decisively bullish forecast for a commencement towards $1,800 per ounce once again.

For further information on this and other Autochartist products, visit our website at www.autochartist.com

DISCLAIMER: The Autochartist service includes chart pattern identification in respect of foreign currencies, commodities, equities and stocks. There are potential risks relating to investing and trading. You must be aware of such risks and familiarize yourself in regard to such risks and to seek independent advice relating thereto. You should not trade with money that you cannot afford to lose .The Autochartist service and its content should not be construed as a solicitation to invest and/or trade. You should seek independent advice in this regard. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. No representation is being made that any results discussed within the service and its related media content will be achieved. All opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information is provided as general market commentary and not as investment advice. Autochartist, MDIO Software, their members, shareholders, employees, agents, representatives and resellers do not warrant the completeness, accuracy or timeliness of the information supplied, and they shall not be liable for any loss or damages, consequential or otherwise, which may arise from the use or reliance of the Autochartist service and its content. This e-mail may contain information that is confidential.

Gold futures completed an impressive rally to reach a key target level during last week’s trading. The week ahead will be important for determining whether this is a short term uptrend or the beginning of a major leg higher on the chart. After breaking out of the Falling Wedge chart pattern identified here on the Autochartist 60-minute time frame, the market moved easily towards the forecast price range.

The move as measured from the swing low inside the Falling Wedge level to Friday’s close amounts to better than a $20 per ounce gain for gold without a retracement. The trade above $1,667 per ounce is very near the wing high price that began the formation of the wedge, making this a 100% retracement of the downside correction. This level represents the minimum projected price and leaves the pattern open for further gains as high as $1,678 per ounce on continued strength.

Traders will be watching for a possible pullback early in the week. If this occurs it may be viewed as a buying opportunity for momentum traders who missed the initial breakout, as well as a point to add to long positions for those who did catch it. The overall bias from this pattern breakout remains solidly bullish, with the resistance trend line of the wedge now acting as key support at the $1,655 per ounce level.

In the longer term, a continuation towards $1,678 will bring into play a longer term chart analysis which projects an eventual retest of the 2011 highs. With the Falling Wedge pattern achieving the completion stage, Autochartist will identify new patterns on multiple time frames to track the relative strength of the uptrend. Likewise, signs of weakness and key level failures on the way up will be identified as they develop.

For further information on this and other Autochartist products, visit our website at www.autochartist.com

DISCLAIMER: The Autochartist service includes chart pattern identification in respect of foreign currencies, commodities, equities and stocks. There are potential risks relating to investing and trading. You must be aware of such risks and familiarize yourself in regard to such risks and to seek independent advice relating thereto. You should not trade with money that you cannot afford to lose .The Autochartist service and its content should not be construed as a solicitation to invest and/or trade. You should seek independent advice in this regard. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. No representation is being made that any results discussed within the service and its related media content will be achieved. All opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information is provided as general market commentary and not as investment advice. Autochartist, MDIO Software, their members, shareholders, employees, agents, representatives and resellers do not warrant the completeness, accuracy or timeliness of the information supplied, and they shall not be liable for any loss or damages, consequential or otherwise, which may arise from the use or reliance of the Autochartist service and its content.